Bitcoin is poised for significant growth, with Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, forecasting that the cryptocurrency will likely hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, irrespective of the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Kendrick’s bullish outlook is based on a combination of regulatory developments, macro trends, and increasing adoption of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He believes that these factors will push Bitcoin to new all-time highs, even as the political landscape in the U.S. remains uncertain.
Factors Driving Bitcoin’s Price to $200K
- Repeal of SAB-121: Kendrick points to the likely removal of Staff Accounting Bulletin-121 (SAB-121), a regulation that currently prevents banks from holding digital assets on behalf of their clients. The rule has been a significant roadblock for institutional involvement in cryptocurrencies. Kendrick predicts that both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are likely to support the repeal of this regulation, which could lead to greater institutional adoption of Bitcoin.
- Leadership Changes at the SEC: Kendrick also anticipates a shift in leadership at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). He specifically mentions Gary Gensler, the current SEC Chair, whose stance on crypto has been viewed negatively by many in the industry. Kendrick believes that a new SEC leadership could lead to pro-crypto policies, potentially fostering a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets.
- Growth in Bitcoin ETFs: The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs is another catalyst Kendrick believes will drive the price of Bitcoin higher. He expects more Bitcoin ETFs to be approved, with Solana (SOL) being a strong contender for future ETF inclusion. These products would make it easier for institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin, further fueling demand.
- Macroeconomic Factors: On the broader economic front, Kendrick points to trends like inflation expectations and the yield curve inversion—where 10-year Treasury yields are higher than 2-year yields—as signs of an economic environment that could benefit Bitcoin. Higher inflation expectations and lower real yields could drive investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional financial systems.
Bitcoin Price Projections
- End of 2024: Kendrick forecasts that if Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, Bitcoin could reach approximately $125,000 by the end of the year.
- End of 2025: Regardless of who occupies the White House, Kendrick predicts Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by the aforementioned factors.
The Political Impact on Crypto
The 2024 U.S. presidential race has elevated cryptocurrency policy to the national stage, with crypto political action committees (PACs) spending millions of dollars in the hopes of influencing pro-crypto legislation. A recent poll by the Gemini exchange revealed that approximately 73% of U.S. voters indicated that crypto policy would influence their vote.
The outcome of the election could shape the future of cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S., but Kendrick’s outlook suggests that even with political uncertainty, the long-term growth trajectory of Bitcoin remains strong.
As the 2024 election draws closer, Bitcoin enthusiasts are keeping a close eye on both the political and economic factors that could influence the cryptocurrency’s price. For now, Kendrick’s forecast provides a cautiously optimistic view of Bitcoin’s potential, regardless of which candidate wins the White House.
